Paulson’s plan thought faulty has scared the hell out of all Senators. President Bush has invited Obama and McCain to apprise them of the plan and seeking their approval so that the plan is not derailed after election.
Once Obama and McCain agree, there is little chance that $700 billion package may not be passed. It will be passed reluctantly and some useless matters like Executive pay are discussed. What is $10 million dollars against $700 billions?
There was a game plan (or conspiracy whatever you call) under which –
- Paulson, Bernanke and Cox (SEC) got together
- Paulson wanted to pass the bill before weekend or in any case before Sep end (reason later)
- Cox was asked to impose ban on short selling of financial shares (799 shares) until 2 Oct
- Bernanke was to spread scare that if the plan is not passed, there would be catastrophe, jobs will be lost, GDP to go down, Credit crisis to become more acute.
Why passage before weekend?
Q3 will end on 30 September after which Q3 result will start arriving on or after 15 October. If the plan is passed before September, Paulson will buy all bad assets from Goldman and others so that result looks good. The current prices of illiquid debt have risen from 20 cents to 98 cents.
Paulson has also proposed that he would buy the bad assets at discount to face value, that is, he will pay $65 against $100 face value (present market value 98 cents) to boost the confidence. This will help the bank to book even profit to reverse the excess provisions.
He ensured that SEC imposes the ban on short selling and to remain in force until the bill is passed which was expected before Sep end. Since the short selling ban ends on 2 October, it is presumed by him that successful passage of bill may cause fierce rally in financial shares due to short covering. Hedge funds and shorters will be dead in the heat.
Once the Obama and McCain show the approval, other Democrats and Republican will not bother to object. After President Bush speech today, there is more than 70% possibility that the bill may be passed before Sunday.
This will cause the following:
1. Dow may rise by 1200 points in 2 or 3 days due to fierce rally in Index related financial shares
2. Gold may plummeted by 5% to 10%
3. Silver may plummet by 20%
4. Oil may drop by 10% to 15%
5. Commodities may also drop due to US$ rally
6. Euro will fall most- Yen least. Rupee will slide over 3%
7. World markets may rise. SENSEX may gain by 2400 points in less than 3 days. All index heavy weight may gain significantly.
8. This scenario is possible only if the bill is passed. For any reason the bill is delayed, almost everything will work in reverse gear. Since everyone is losing money and want the market to go higher, they will want to know so called good news (which is sugar coated saccharine) to fuel the rally.
I may be buying today some scraps just for short term. I will throw away in possible next week rally. The investors who have large short position should begin to unwind or take 20% opposite position by buying out of money calls as hedge. I would personally liquidate short position by 80% now, retaining just 20% against which I would buy out of money calls (options to limit the risk). Do not think that I am bullish on the market. This is sugar coated market for brave hearts. This is purely trading scenario – Investment climate is still worsening.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
Ref: 09-091-R 25/9/2008
2)
for jems000
No specific recommendations. Buy the counters you trade most, since you know their profile. The stocks that have performed well of late may underperform.
I bought Essar Oil (180), essar shipping (74), GV Films (2.61), Air Deccan (65.95), Spicejet (21.75), IFCI (38.90), Sold Quantum Gold (643). I had sold out the above shares earlier at much higher price, so reinvesting same realized amount in same shares so that I get now more shares. MRPL (54) GSPL (52.95) also bought.
You may buy any shares of your choice, do not have to go by my selection because they form regular portfolio. I spent about Rs 12 lakhs today which is just 5% of my earlier stock investment.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
25/9/2008
3)
for agr varun
I have already mentioned that you may buy any stock of your choice. I trade only in certain scrips for which I have much large potential. for example, Spicejet was sold by me over 90s, when bought around 53. rencently, I sold them @ 25.75 and @29 some time ago. so I am buying back below 22 - 75% less than original sale price.
to buy stock, you have to know how they behave or misbehave, be they index stock or otherwise. Every investor has his own list of preferred stocks, so they may decide independently.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
25/9/2008
4)
for syagnik,
You better quote me in proper context. Do not try to become smart by misquoting me. My original assessment of IFCI was pre-take over days when Goldman was one in the fray. At that time, I had mentioned the target of Rs 700+ only if Goldman took over. Read the article again.
Further, when IFCI management was dilly-dallying, I asked every boarder that the stake sale does not seem likely and gave 'SELL' call when the IFCI was 90+. At that time, almost all IFCI fans pounced on me saying that I was trying to talk down the stock price and that IFCI will never come down even to 60 level. Rest is history. IFCI stake sale failed and thereafter all negative events took place with IFCI trading at below 40.
You also forget that in last 8 months I gave 3 times 'SELL' call to sell everything. Do you know what is the meaning of 'Everything'? If you don't, refer simple English dictionary.
I don't like to reply to mischievous boarders like you, who like to ridicule to other boarders just to look themselves smart, and always misquote or misinterpret just to prove your points. Don't you have better things to do?You better be constructive or just make it a point not to come to my counter.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
25/9/2008
5)
Check your numbers, dates and contexts.Do not bluff.
For Buffet, I have already written detailed note, not just out of contect stuff like yours. My notes or comments are fully authenticated with facts and figures.
You came to wrong door, buddy. Do not fool around. This is my last response to you. you may continue barking as loud as you can.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
25/9/2008
6)
for sp.polo,
I am always cool. Please remember that the above rally is conditional in that $700 billion package will be approved by the congress. I have already mentioned that there is 70% possibility for the bill to pass through.
It is likely to go through because senators are scared to death if they did not approve. Bernanke warned that if they did not approve, there will be more defaults, unemployment, job losses and credit squeeze.
Senators are still in dark what has really happened. They have to rely on these so called experts.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
25/9/2008
7)
for ethereal
There was no mistake nor intentional. There are many who know my real identity. when I reproduced the message from Smartmoney. com, it was word to word. It was just copied and pasted from there.
Forget my identity. The boarders should be concerned with the message contents, what I write and how does it help them. Name is not very important.
Kalidas, Hong kong
25/9/2008
8)
for sp.polo
Today's market is like an ODI. It is hit and run market. there is lot of newsflow. We do not know as yet whether the $700 billion bill will be passed or not. A bank like UBS appears to be in serious trouble, intending to merge with HSBC (so that their cross obligations cross out each other)
We can not even anticipate the movements for longer than 3 to 7 days, forget for whole year or next.
As you may have seen, the market is sought to be manipulated by the US Authority itself. If the standard is not met, change the standard. The rules (shor selling) were also changed in midstream causing billions of dollars of losses to Hedge funds. you may soon see hundreds of cases being filed against SEC - wait for 15 days
On its own, India is still the best market to be in. for NRI like us, the disconcerting factor is the falling rupee. However, if the gain is over 100% and if we lose 5% in exchange, we still end up on the plus side.
Anything is possible in the market. Any target is achievable in highly uncertain and riskiest markets. Even if the Indian market is strong, and there is melt down in foreign centers, the sheer intense margin call will force the FII to sell the Indian equities on wholesale basis. Please remember that they are FII - a corporate entity - not human. They do not have sentiment. When they decide to sell, they just press the SELL button without winking the eyes.
You have to monitor the event diligently. You have to get us early at 5:30 AM and start reading all newspapers from US, UK and India (India most) to arrive at the judgement of possible market movement.
for the time being, the market is short term. When it stabilizes, we can work out target based on momentum and money flow. If the foreign centers drop more and India less, it is possible that in the event of stability, India may drop and other markets go up, because FII tend to sell the relatively expensively shares to buy relatively cheaper shares abroad. Then the people may ask - Hey Dow went up, why we are going down?
Kalidas, Hong Kong
25/9/2008
9)
for DUstocks
Yes, you are very correct. There is some snag in the accpetance of the 'bail out' proposal. There is considerable opposition from more than 100 economists and other citizens (tax payers). However, it does appear that there is disagreement on details rather than principles.
Personally, I do not appreciate the proposal. There are better solutions. However, I am not American citizen. I also posted a letter to'smartmoney. com' yesterday explaining why the proposal amounts to 'manipulation of market price' by Paulson and Bernanke.
My original message is conditional with big 'If'. However, I have a strong feeling that the proposal will be passed with some amendment. Look at yesterday's event - Washington Mutual almost closed down and finally taken over by JP Morgan Chase (another so called strong bank but one of the weakest in my opinion with trillions of dollars of derivative exposure)
I bought lots of stocks yesterday - almost Rs 10 lakhs with selling of Quantum Gold funds only temporarily. I bought back only those stocks that I had sold earlier at more than 15% higher prices than now. I do not want to sell them today, but will hold until next week.
Today's Dow will be very crucial. It's future is already trading at 120 points discount on yesterday's close. The meetings on Capial Hill is still going on.
Indian market too may open subdued today. It will be very short term trading opportunity. There is always a risk in the market at uncertain time. Such timing alone create opportunity to earn (or lose) in stocks. I do not trade in indices however, and those trading in NIFTY or otherwise may wait until Monday early morning before taking position.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
26/9/2008
10)
for pagal hui mai
Yes, you are very right. You have to wait for 7 days - whether I am right or wrong. It could go either way.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
26/9/2008
11)
for Soumen Roy (Guest)
Q: My question is why WaMu was not favoured in the Bailout Package.
A: WAMU was already given over $219 billion earlier. All drained down
Q: Why The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was in a hurry to seize WaMu before the Bailout package is approved?
A: To avoid panic. It is 4th largest bank
Q: Why WaMu did not apply for Bankruptcy Protection?
A: Chapter 11 does not apply to banks, investment banks, brokers, commodity brokers or even Insurance /financial services companies (like Hedge funds, mutual funds). To them, only chapter 7 applies, that is the company must be compulsorily wound up under the order of court. If that happens, the list of creditors and debtors will be publicly known that may have cascading effect by way of run on those institutions.
Q: How come JPMC, \`a Bank on parade\` - as you mentioned, is on desperate buying spree?
A: A bankrupt always puts up a show that it has more money than known to the market. When they buy, people may say - ha ha, they have money to buy, so that they may not have troubles. The fact is that these are all 'paper deals' that does not involve the movement of cash. Bank like JPMC gives away their shares in payment of others' shares in different ratio. When even $10 million of credit is not availbale to companies like McDonald, where is the question of JPMC paying $2 billions to WaMu shareholders?
Your last question already replied.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
26/9/2008
12)
My original estimate was $ 8 trillions and minimum $4 to 5 trillions. It looks like that even the figure of $ 8 trillions is understated.
Kalidas,
Hong Kong
27/5/2008...
13)
for Soumen Roy (Guest)
JPMC has been having fat lunch and dinners with lots of billin dollar foods having tons of bacteria. It is time it starts having vomitting or diarrhia. Only yesterday, it reportedly raised $10 Billions which is a first indication it will report more than that amount as losses in next quarter, which may be categorized as non-cash losses having no adverse impact on their balance sheet.
Next to go will be banks. WaMu has started the Olymic parade. In this marathon race, some fat guys are participating. Next go will be GE, GM, Ford, Chrysler, Wacovia, Citi and JPMC in that order. Let us not forget even Bank of America.
It is a feast time for vultures - but they are not found anywhere. They too are dead eating bacteria infested food.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
27/9/2008
14)
for shia,
it is said that ' A crow is black everywhere, be it from Kanyakumari or Kashmir' The basic color and character does not change.
Politicians are like Crows, be they from India or America.
Kalidas, Hong kong
28/9/2008
15)
for shia,
The present bailout agreement will carry the consensus of only a few Democrat and Republican leaders, who want to release the 100 pages long Bail Out plan to the press before opening of Asian (World) markets (they don't care about World markets, what Paulson gang want is to have Goldman, Citibank, JPMC and BOA bad debts be valued at higher market price for the Sept 08 quarter. If the proposal is delayed beyond Sep, their valuation has to be on old basis of just 20 cents.
They also want to change the MTM Rules, to HTM (Held Till Maturity) rule. Whole accounting system will be thrown out of window. In generally accepted accounting rules, the holdings are usually valued at either Cost or Market value, whichever is higher. They want to change the Accounting Rules.
This Paulson/Bernanke want to change the balance sheets of entire corporate world by changing the rules. Their theory is - If you can not meet the standard, change the standard to conform to your needs.
By giving $700 billion to parallel economy created by these bullshit Brokers and Banks, the devil team of Paulson and Bernanke want to legalize the illegal money. It is more like legalizing black money.
Creation of money is the function of the Central Bank like FED, EU or RBI. Only they can create money. However, these banks and brokers in USA created money out of vacuum in off centers like Cayman Island in the form of derivatives. They were not shown originally on their balance sheets. When the default became evident, they transferred the off balance sheet liability from off shore centers to real balance sheet of on shore parent entity. This is why a giant bank like HSBC transferred $45 billions of liability to their main balance sheet in one go. When these liability came on shore, it was in fact the parallel economy that came on shore. FED has to weed out this economy. Is FED bound to honour bogus $ currency notes printed in Africa? No,then how come illegal money created abroad are to be permitted to become legal and legalize them by giving them $ 700 billions?
And look at the news, I mentioned that Paulson always favour Goldman Sach. When brief details were released, he is said to appoint an executive from Goldman Sach Mr. Frost - I forget the name - to oversee the Treasury Investment of buying back bonds. So, the entire Bail out plan will bail out the Goldman Sach and its henchmen. The corruption will be at its peak in America.
How could this Idiot President Bush recommend the congress to give blank checkbook to Paulson with $700 billions to spend without the question being asked, when his remaining terms is only 1 month officially? He will have no accountability and Goldman like vulture will eat all the carcases.
If the plan is approved, the Interest rates may rise to over 20% in less than 6 months - they are already in double near double digit. Even a state of New York raised the latest funds by paying 9% interest.
Yes, the rally will come. The markets world over will rise 20% in just under 3 to 7 days - and then big question. whether the bill will be passed in Senate or Congress? Their leaders have agreed, not all senators or congressmen. If the bill is not passed in the senate, the President does not have 'veto' power to approve the budget on his own. Then - BOOM - the market may collapse again.
So next week, I will be selling what I bought last week. And when finally the bill is passed into law, that I will enter the market again.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
28/9/2008
16)
for lovemeall26
please understand that my target of 2400 points rise is QUALIFIED if the bill is passed through the Congress. the agreement by few leaders of respective parties is not enough.
Please note that people have been coming out in hordes in the street to protest against the bill. If the bill is made into law, the street protest may turn violent.
With guns in every home, mass protest may soon convert into full fledged CIVIL WAR even before election on 4th November, 2008
United States is dangerously speeding towards USSR way. The local governments and states need $200 billions which is not given away, and in that case, they will violently react, if $700 billions are given in just under one day to save lousy banks and brokers'
Be cautious for a few days. My target of 2400 points may not be reached, if the bill does not pass through into law. There are many 'IF' so unless you are brave, and wearing bullet proof jacket, don't venture into it only because I said so.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
29/5/2008
17)
for shia,
American Senators entertain only those letters/emails/phone calls if they have originated from their constituencies. My email was replied by R Shelby who was key Republican Senator opposing the Paulson Plan. But that was the routine reply from their internal staff.
Only publications like Books may help. There are millions of blogs, and honestly, not many care about what is mentioned. The only solace is that you published it and some one read it.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
29/5/2008
18)
Yes, if they dip more, go on gathering it. In all probability, the market may drop by few hundred points and then retrace all losses. Could end up on plus side too. The bad news has been discounted in the yesterday's fall.
I bought same stocks yesterday.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
30/9/2008
19)
for abyphilip,
In stock market never regret or repent any action. Be always foward looking. If you have lost, try to see where you can make it up, keeping your eyes and ears open.
I also invested over Rs 12 lakhs, just a small portion from my early liquidation of entire portfolio, on last thursday. I was about 2 days early. So be it. I am down by about 10%, but I bought progressively.
Wherever I am in money, I am selling to book small profit and stay liquid. If those stocks come down again, I will buy back.
I am accumuating GSPL and sold small lot of 500 of Air Deccan that I bought at Rs 53. If it goes higher, I have another lot bought at 58 to 59. If it goes to 70, then I have third lot at about 64 and one lot at highest price at Rs 71 is still held by me.
What I am trying to say is that you can not perfectly time any purchase or sale. Inspite of market down by over 2000 pts, my state owned refinery stocks are still up by over 35% to 50% (in BOCL). People were laughing at me when I recommended those stocks when RPL was at Rs 172. Today, my holdings are up by 35% in those companies, and RPL down by 20%
One you start blaming yourself, the market will never let you make any money. You can not change history, so don't waste time there.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
30/5/2008
20)
If you are making money in Air Deccan, sell it and switch to GSPL.
I heard something about Air Deccan that was not so good. They appear to have some tight liquidity.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
30/5/2008
21)
I do not like ICICI so I don't follow. However, there are rumours and pressures on US government to change the insistence of MTM or Mark to Market Rules to HTM or Hold Till Maturity rule. If that happens, then ICICI may rise.
However, changing the rule does not change their assets. It is still Zero, but will be shown at higher valuations.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
30/9/2008
22)
for abyphilip
Are you saying that HNI invested their PF (Provident Fund?) in NIFTY index? Stupid are those who speculate (they call, invest) serious money in such gambling.
What is MT?. LT is still in my opinion very expensive shares, but the preferred shares of thousands of boarders here. I will never buy LT even at 40% less price than now.
Books are meant for civilians and not for professionals. They talk theory subject to one or 10 factors stagnant. This never happens.
Only once I bought a book on options and whenever I wanted to have nice sleep, I would open up the book. I still have it and call it my sleeping pill.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
30/5/2008
23)
It is difficult to render day to day individual advice to boarders. I can only say that - by reading newspapers and watching CNBC or NDTV or Economic times, you do not make money. When the information is published, it loses the investment people. When everyone knows, who will buy or sell from/to you?
Only those stocks make money that have excitement concealed after it. This is why Utility never make money, because anyone can work out those companies' earnings. People go after high tech shares because they know nothing about the company or its business. Many do not even know how to write an email, and they invest in high tech company like Infosys, Wipro or HCL without knowing what they are doing.
Kalidas,Hong Kong
30/5/08
25)
I had immediately withdrawn recommendation for the reason that the P/E ratio was reflecting pre-IPO picture. One reader has drawn my attention to it. In fact, my recommendation was also qualified subject to this condition. I did mention that I had not studied the prospectus thoroughly. There was obviously misrepresentation in the flyer accompanying the IPO Prospectus
Normally, I never invest in IPO because of lots of hype. Unless IPO is of leading listed companies, I would not suggest anyone to buy any kind of IPO.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
2-10-2008
26)
for sandip_muscat
I will be writing in detail how to restructure the portfolio in case of distress or crash. I can only suggest the method and how does it work, rather than specific stocks. There are thousands of stocks. It is difficult to follow many many stocks because it distracts and defocuses the attention.
regards
Kalidas,Hong Kong
2-10-2008
27)
Reply to Manjunath 1 Oct 08 at 3:10 am Edit
The expenditure on scientific exploration is not unproductive. They pay up over long period. Apart from military use, they also benefit in predicting weather and help agriculture. The 700B expenditure we are dicussing here are total waste - throwing good money after bad. They are absolutely uncomparable. while MBA are being used in high profile jobs in financial sector, most of them are used in real manufacturing industries of every kind. Finance is only a branch of MBA
28)
Kalidas,
Was reading on Money Control that Indian markets with an additional 10 -15% shaved off would be the cheapest they have been in 15-16 years . Dont you think we should look forward to a long lasting bull market in India.
Reply to Deekay,
You have wrong information. Even in Oct 2002, SENSEX was at 2949. Go to Yahoo Finance and check the historical prices. The bulls are dead in western market. In India, they might be relatively stronger, However, don’t forget the terrorists have already infiltrated into Pakistan and are increasingly crossing over to India. This kind of geo-political factor play important role in the market indices. Yes, India is least leveraged market, with heavy savings and almost 30,000 tons of accunulated gold. If the Gold price rise to 2400 in 12 months, then the gold holding alone will be over $2.4 trilions - right now may be around $800 billions to$1 trillions. The trouble is that Indians are very obstinate in character - once they stick to something, they never detach. If Gold is sold steadily in rally, those money could be pumped into the capital market. In that case, who cares about FII? - Kalidas, 2-Oct-2008
27)
Reply to lalitdeshpandey
Excellent. I was waiting for this kind of misquoted and out-of-context post. In fact, it has been practice of some of the boarders to quote me out of context all the time, just to prove them right. Now, Let me reply you by point by point.
CUT & PASTE
Show me a single instance where I have been using :Cut & Paste' technology with specific dates so that I will know whether it was me who doing that act or some other
Let us go point by point:
Kalidas : Once the Obama and McCain show the approval, other Democrats and Republican will not bother to object. After President Bush speech today, there is more than 70% possibility that the bill may be passed before Sunday.(Forecast)
Fact: Both Obama and McCain both were non-committal before house rejected the motion. When Dow fell by 778 points, and Bush invited them to White House, they became more specific and decided to support the motion. Finally, in the second vote yesterday, the motion was passed. Let the readers judge.
Among the 2400 pts rally, I have narrated 8 points. Let me take Pont no. 8 first.
Point No.8
Kalidas : This scenario is possible only if the bill is passed. For any reason the bill is delayed, almost everything will work in reverse gear. Since everyone is losing money and want the market to go higher, they will want to know so called good news (which is sugar coated saccharine) to fuel the rally.
Fact: The SENSEX behaved exactly as mentioned. My call for 2400 pts was QUALIFIED if the scenario of passage of bill in the first instance - it did not happen
Following are the factual SENSEX figures:
3-Oct-08 Friday 12,526.32 (-529)
2-Oct-08 Thursday 12,526.32 (Market closed in India only)
1-Oct-08 Wednesday 13,055.67 (+195)
30-Sep-08 Tuesday 12,860.43 (+265)
29-Sep-08 Monday 12,595.75 (-507)
26-Sep-08 Friday.. 13,102.18 (-445)
25-Sep-08 Thursday 13,547.18 Base
(My post was at 10:02 India time or 12:30 HK time)
When the Paulson Plan was rejected, my forecast came to an end. Everything worked in reverse gear. I has also mentioned that -
Kalidas: Do not think that I am bullish on the market. This is sugar coated market for brave hearts. This is purely trading scenario – Investment climate is still worsening.
Other points:
1. Dow may rise by 1200 points in 2 or 3 days due to fierce rally in Index related financial shares
Kalidas: It did not, one day down by 778 points, second day up 485 pts. Financial shares rallied by over 20% and in some cases 70% in case of small regional banks
2. Gold may plummeted by 5% to 10%
Kalidas: Gold was $902 (25Sep) Now $ 828 (2 Oct) - down $74 (-8.20%)
3. Silver may plummet by 20%
Kalidas: Now $10.85 (3Oct) $13.40 (25 Sep) down 2.60 (-19.33%)
4. Oil may drop by 10% to 15%:
Kalidas: Now $93.88 (3 Oct) $111.54 (25 Sep) down 17.66 (-15.83%)
5. Commodities may also drop due to US$ rally
Kalidas: CRB Metal sub Index 403 (3Oct) was 425 (25Sep) - Down 22 or 5.17%
6. Euro will fall most- Yen least. Rupee will slide over 3%
Kalidas: EURO: 1.3767 (3Oct) was 1.47 (25Sep) down .0933 (-6.35%)
YEN : 105.32 (3Oct) was 106.5 (25Sep) up 1.18 (+1.1%)
RUPEE: 46.98 (3Oct) was 45.90 (25Sep-Opening) Down 1.08 (-2.35%)
7. World markets may rise. SENSEX may gain by 2400 points in less than 3 days. All index heavy weight may gain significantly. (This was subject to Point 8 immediately following, IF the budget was passed at first instance, which was voted out - that turned the sentiments negative)
NOW, coming to you losing and ruined by my posting, I can only say that you never believed it. You are just bluffing. In fact you mentioned as under:
QUOTE
I had posted my logic several times that even historic bull time has rarely shown such a rally in 7 days, BUT TO MY SUPRISE and TO THE SHAME OF MMB, all of my messages are deleted by you or your BLIND FOLLOWERS.
UNQUOTE
Kalidas, Hong Kong
4-10-2008 (Contd Part II)
28)
for lalitdeshpandey (PART - II of my reply)
Your concern about my other followers...
QUOTE
It is not that much important but what it cause damage to thousands of your followers is that they failed to have look and second thought against your filthy prediction of SENSEX RALY 2400 points in 7 days.
UNQUOTE
I can only I say that my followers read my entire post, not just header line. When they read the headline, they also read the 8 points mentioned by me. In fact one follower wrote to me that there was a BIG IF coming true, (and therefore it was too risky to play the market)
Listen, I am looking for only good followers who do not blindly follow me, but read everything before they act. I do not want impulsive boarders who do not discipline themselves. In fact, I am teaching them those disciplines. I also gave them number of SELL Calls in the past, and all of them came true. What is happening today, was exactly told to the readers almost 11 months ago.
And look at above facts, I was right in most of the cases. Read my reply point by point with facts and figures. Yes, SENSEX did not rise 2400 pts because the bill was voted out at first instance.
....
Kalidas, Hong Kong
4-Oct-2008
29)
for wbuffet001
Most of these reserve is kept in Euro dollar which is similar to Black money in India. If Eurodollar is demonetized, all these reserve will become zero overnight, including Govt. Of India`s 300 Bln which is also kept in Euro dollar account. US government is liable only for the $ retained in their treasury account, or domestic banking institutions, not otherwise.
Please understand that these Arab countries are Islamic nations and hate India. They would prefer Western countries first. Singapore government does not have $430 billions as you claim. India is much ahead of Singapore in FOREX reserve, even higher than our Hong Kong.
Abu Dhabi can not have $875 billions - they do not have that kind of oil production. I therefore discount these figures as highly imaginative.
Please note that such huge sum can be kept only with some countries, Even if you see the largest western nations like UK, EU and AU, you will not find these countries holding even 30% of the figures you have mentioned. So, where is the money?
Further, strictly speaking, India does not need such Arabs or Americans. The NRI is having such large pool of money that they, under duress of banking with Western banks, will prefer to deposit with Indian banks.
But the Government of India is offering step motherly treatment to NRI. We get hardly 3% interest on our Rupee NRI deposit whereas local people get 10% of above. This is because GOI did not want appreciation of rupee. Now that rupee is declining, they should change the policy, but their policies are never dynamic.
In 1992, when India needed lots of FOREX, they approached every NROI with begging bowl by extending schemes like SBI`s Resurgent India bond, later India Development Bonds. etc. they paid even 21% interest (local interest was als0 15% to 16%). When their purpose was served, they started hating NRIs and gave indifferent treatment. Our Ministers are useless, they distrust our own people, and bend forward and backward before Westerners.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
4-10-2008
30)
for chchch
It is possible. Indians are scared to death. Indians in Hong Kong have reportedly lost over $ 2 billions, majority in such products known as Accumulators and Lehman bonds. There is a fraud thrust upon the Investors worldwide.
Lehman was relatively small brokerage firm. They reportedly owe $675 Billions on bonds, that is, more than twice India`s forex Reserve. It is impossible. They were not larger than nation like India. Strictly speaking, they were even smaller than Mittal, Reliance, Tata or Birla in real tangible terms. How could they be 2.3 times the size of India?
All are bogus entries. They siphoned off large chunk of money from Investors. It is possible that Goldman, JPMC, Citi, BOA and others like AIG, Fannie/Freeide Mae might have sold their unrealisble assets to Lehman under the table and pay bribes to Lehman executives, who then sold their products to innocent investors. After lynching them of cash, they went belly up. This was well orchestrated fraud. This is why US Govt did not save Lehman and allowed them to die with their skeletons.
Kalidas, Hong Kong`
4-10-2008
31)
for agr varun
...
You said that you lost money, because you lost your mind by NOT reading what I have written and with what qualification. Further, there are many who made money in Gold, Oil, Silver, Euro, Yen, Rupee etc. What about them? In January and later, my 'Sell' call many persons` life savings and they have been writing that in this forum. what about them? Further, I am not your broker - and I do not earn whether you make money or lose money.
Always use your tiny brain before making investment. I have already mentioned that SENSEX will rise 2400 pts in 7 days IF and ONLY IF the bill passed through the House of Representative, otherwise all will work in reverse gear. Can you understand this plain simple English?
......
Kalidas, Hong Kong
4-10-2008
32)
for KUD,
Yes, you are right. Inspite of knowing the bankruptcy, a German bank sent several millions to Lehman and lost within 3 hours, not even one day.
I do not know anything about Spain. Looks avery imaginative idea
Finland govt does not have even $200 billion dollar, how could they give $400 billions?
In Hong Kong, Indian banks are facing liquidity squeeze. They are withdrawing credit limits of customers or asking them to reduce the limit on voluntary basis by 30%. A nationalized bank informed its customers of raising Interest Rate by massive 2.5% (over 50%) because they are not getting funding in London or US Inter bank market where they have branches. There are at least 3 Indian banks facing the credit squeeze.
so, the credit crisis is spreading very fast. I was a banker for 19 years, so I know what is credit and how is it raised and managed.
An author mentioned that 'A bank is solvent so long as its customers are not demanding repayment of deposit at same time. The bank survives in such statistical probability'
Former SEC Chairman who was interviewed on Bloomberg stated that he took Paulson`s promise to take over bad assets by valuing them individually in 7 days, WHICH PROCESS WILL TAKE OVER 5 YEARS FOR THE LOAN BOOK OF THIS SIZE.
I also heard one Fund Manager saying that Monday may see huge plunge of Dow. Many Hedge Funds have been busted due to ban on short selling in middle of the game. Hedge Funds are having huge redemptions and people are just withdrawing money from them and also from Morgan (Stanley) which is now converted into a bank. Hedge Fund industry is 3 trillion industry, and just imagine if they lose, what happens in the market place?
Kalidas, Hong Kong
4-10-2008 for KUD,
33)
....
In stock market anyone loses 20% to 50%, nothing new in it. 95 persons lose money and only a few less than 5% make the money consistently over a period of time.
...
Kalidas, Hong Kong
4-10-2008
34)
for wbuffet001
I do not want to dispute you. You are paying too much attention on the write up of that Peter Heyward and the figures churned out by him. What is the source of his information. Has he quoted it?
I have already conducted research from the figures of BIS (Bank of INternational Settlement), US treasury, United Nations and IMF. I normally rely on figures that are authenticated by the reliable source.
UAE includes Abu Dhabi, so their funds is over US$ 1.375 trillions which is impossible. Their oil production is very low, and even if you count it for over 1 years, they come no where. Saudi, the major producer, produced 10 Mln barrels per day (mbpd). Even if you take average price of $ 80 for over one year (we are counting average), the monthly earning comes to $24 billions and for entire one year it comes to less than $300 billions. Other emirate countries produce just a fraction of what Saudi does, so their amount of $ 1.3 trillions sound debatable.
Further, China does not have official sovereign funds, their Forex reserve is over $ 1.8 trillions now. The countries like Saudi do not even figure amongs top 20 Forex holders in the world, that is a mystery. Russia has official Forex reserve over $500 billions of dollars and they too do not have Sovereign Funds ( I hope you are not mixing up Sovereign Funds with Forex reserve).
Here are the first top 14 nations holding FOREX reserve (Source IMF)The table may not be reproduced accurately, because this is text only forum
Country/Monetary Authority 'FOREX Reserves
(millions of USD)' Figures as of
World (sum of all countries) $7,631,724 --
' People`s Republic of China... $1,808,828 Jun-08
Japan ........................$1,002,000 Jun-08
Russia.........................$ 574,300 Jul-08
' Eurozone .....................$ 563,426 Mar-08
India..........................$ 308,397 Jul-08
Republic of China (Taiwan).....$ 291,400 Jun-08
South Korea....................$ 258,200 May-08
Brazil........................ $ 200,231 Jun-08
Singapore......................$ 175,800 May-08
Hong Kong..................... $ 159,000 May-08
Germany....................... $ 143,942 Apr-08
Algeria........................$ 126,905 Mar-08
Malaysia.......................$ 124,600 Jun-08
France........................ $ 125,311 Feb-08
I do not mind even if some one quotes my article on MMB as itf it is their own. I just write for the benefit of MMB members. Do not forget that US is having prosperity of nearly 200 years. Their economy alone is worth $13 trillions. Americans do have money (their government may not have) just as Indians inspite of being poor, must be having 30,000 tons of Gold (India imports about 800 tons of Gold every year and some portion may have been exported but very small)
Kalidas, Hong Kong
4-10-2008
35)
for ysb
An excellent and intelligent question. Honestly, I never like a company or business leader who day in and out buys some or the other different companies or floats new ones not related to their core business. (This applies to Reliance group also).
Mittal invested in related business, but he never had that kind of money as projected. Most of the wealth of the tycoons are only on paper, their wealth goes up because their share prices go up in bull market. We therefore call them billionaire. They never disclose their personal liabilities.
The FORBES list of top 100 is nothing but a bogus list. They value the existing holding of the controlling shareholders by multiplying his stake x current stock price. How about his personal liabilities, that are never disclosed?
Whenever they buy new companies or float new ventures, they fund it not from their liquid cash, but borrow from their brokers or banks by pledging the shares of existing companies. The borrow in their personal capacity. When the situation like this comes, and their bankers issue Margin calls. If they can not meet (and they would not) the margin calls, the financing banks or broker sells out those shares in market or in private deal.
The real stature of Mittal will come out during this testing time. The persons like Mittal love debt more than anything else. His original venture Ispat, the main borrowing vehicle, is still neck deep in debt. But he is not longer liable, having migrated to London. (or ran away?)
When the debt crisis is in full swing, and metal prices are plummeting, his share values pledged as collaterals will also come down. He should get margin call from his bankers or brokers. If he can not meet them, his pledged securities will be sold off and all the mountains of debt will come to the light.
If he passed this test during these times, then he would be deemed to have real wealth. Until such time, watch his empire closely.
Tell me, which banker in India is going to lend Rs 4000 to 8000 crores to Anil Ambani`s Reliance Power, when they have no other assets and the plant is just on paper or under part execution? Obviously, he would have pledged the shares of his flagship companies like Reliance Communication, Reliance Capital etc. which he is not required to disclose under any act because these are his personal holdings.
Ratan Tata was a disciplined businessman in the past. But he had personal ego - Yeh kalka Chhokra Lakshmi Mittal, mere se hajaro miles aage nikal gaya. Main bhi kuchh bataa doon. (This yesterday`s boy has advanced several miles ahead of me. Let me also show the world that I am not anything less than him) So he bought Corus.
When I wrote against Ratan Tata on this subject, somewhere in December or January, everyone on this board pounced on me, how a person from cozy office in Hong Kong could write on Ratan Tata who is visionary and best businessman of India. I questioned his take over only one ground - he bought when the GBP was at highest, Steel prices were at highest, and stock prices at highest. how could he expect to make money. And where was he, when he could have bought Steel Authority of India which was trading at Rs 5 at the height of crisis a few years ago? The stock SAIL then went up to over Rs 160 or so. If he was so bullish on India, why did he become so foolish to go all the way to London to buy Corus that was 5 times the size of TISCO for which he did not have expertise or experience?
Refer my old write up on Ratan Tata if you can retrieve that from the Archive. It had full article on Ratan Tata.
Kalidas, Hong Kong
6-10-2008
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